Models are only simulations of reality. In science, they have a long history of simplifying complex physical phenomena in an attempt to understand them. Many times, empirical evidence can correct a model. The model then becomes a more accurate simulation, and can even provide additional insights and make predictions. Can modeling work for the unobservable, unrepeatable past? A story posted on Space.com has a title like a Kipling fictional story: “Why Early Earth Did Not Freeze.” Reporter Aaron L. Gronstal for Astrobiology Magazine addressed a well-known puzzle in climate history: how the early earth prevented a deep freeze. According to stellar evolution theory, stars like our sun begin with much lower luminosity. Four billion years ago, the sun would not have had enough energy to keep Earth’s oceans from freezing. Yet evolutionists and geologists believe that the earth had liquid oceans at least as early as 3.7 billion years ago. This is the “faint young sun paradox.” Geophysicists and climate historians have proposed more “greenhouse effect” or meteor bombardments to warm the earth, but without convincing success. Most doubt that there could have been enough carbon dioxide, methane or ammonia to provide a space blanket. Gronstal reported models by German scientists that reduce the amount of carbon dioxide required to heat the earth. “The model showed that a partial pressure of only 2.9 millibars of CO2 would have been needed during the late Archaean and early Proterozoic periods in order to bring the surface temperature of the Earth above freezing,” the article said. “This result, although contrary to previous studies, agrees with current geological data.” The paradox thus disappears. Whether this claim will have ripple effects on assumptions about the impact of carbon dioxide remains to be seen. Will it renew fears about global warming? What does it mean to other geological periods when life was present? And a question for philosophers of science: what was driving the model – the physics, or the assumptions of stellar and geological theories? Another geology news story is shaking up the world – so to speak. National Geographic News claimed that continents get pushed, not sucked, into place. This new idea, “contrary to accepted theory,” rearranges ideas about a theoretical supercontinent named Pangaea that split up 200 million years ago on the evolutionary timeline. This “provocative” new theory pictures the continents moving back-and-forth like an accordion, instead of by the suction of deep ocean basins. Maybe a superplume of magma in the mantle is the driving force. Yet the article includes doubts that geologists know any of this, because like the climate story above, it is based on models:This accordionlike action, dubbed the Wilson Cycle, has been recognized for more than 40 years, but the forces responsible for it are unknown. Moreover, if current models thought to be responsible for these movements were applied to a 500-million-year-old Earth, they would not produce Pangaea in the right configuration. Why this reversal happened is unclear, and that’s disconcerting, [J. Brendan] Murphy said, because even though Pangaea is the best studied of the supercontinents, “something happened that we don’t understand.”Murphy agreed that his model is “speculative.” Applying the model forward, he said it makes Earth’s future “a lot more fun to study” even though he could never know the outcome, because a new supercontinent wouldn’t form for 75 million years. National Geographic quoted Murphy explaining where continental motion fits into grand schemes of evolution. “Most people believe that for at least the last two and a half billion years, the Earth’s history has been dominated by the amalgamation, breakup, and reforming of supercontinents,” he said. “It really is an underpinning of the evolution of the planet.” The new ideas were reported also in a short article in Science Daily called “Pangaea Conundrum.”With the faint-young-sun story, we have another case of a contradiction that should have falsified a belief being circumvented by tweaking a simulation. And with the Pangaea story, we have geologists playing games on the job. This is like what the evolutionary biologists do with their in silico organisms (imaginary life-forms that can evolve in ways real organisms never could). Climate is very complex and difficult to model, even for today’s weather. Can these scientists really know what carbon dioxide did to the earth 3.9 billion years ago, without going back there in a time machine? How many other factors (clouds, outgassing, feedback mechanisms) could have swamped the effects of carbon dioxide? (for instance, see this article on EurekAlert that explores possible effects of giant ocean eddies that might have a “profound influence on marine life and on the earth’s climate”). How justifiable is it to run present observed continental motions back recklessly for billions of years into the past? The observation-to-assumption ratio is so small it is like homeopathic medicine – one molecule of data in a swimming pool of speculation. Models that cannot be checked with empirical data become playgrounds for storytellers. Never are these astro-geo-biologists content to follow the evidence and say, “Well, I guess the earth couldn’t be as old as that.” No way; they have their timeline, with its mythical Late Heavy Bombardment, First Oxygenation Event (after the mythical Origin of Life), mythical supercontinents Pangaea, Rodinia and Gondwana (which sound like characters in an earth religion), and all the subsequent Darwinian fables that ride on top. When a contradiction threatens the Grand Myth, they can always invent simulations that can be tweaked and forced sufficiently to match their hard-core, unalterable beliefs about billions of years and evolution. Models become their carts before the observational horse. Who needs a horse? They have horseless carriages, driven by the gas of imagination, polluting the atmosphere of knowledge. Whether this is Model A or Model T, we don’t know. Even a broken flivver can be pushed if it won’t go on its own and the horse is going in the other direction.(Visited 16 times, 1 visits today)FacebookTwitterPinterestSave分享0
What it Takes to Build a Highly Secure FinTech … Related Posts AI: How it’s Impacting Surveillance Data Storage Andrey Kudievskiy is the founder and CEO of Distillery, a full-service software design and development company that works with enterprises and startups to create new products and fundamentally improve existing ones. Follow the Puck Tags:#automation#CALMS#Cultural Change#development#Devops#IT structure#Methodology#operations#Organizational Change Modern technologies allow businesses to deliver products and services faster and more efficiently with each passing day. Speed and efficiency are the key drivers of success in today’s business environment, which is why companies that have embraced DevOps as a business methodology are dominant. (Think Amazon, Netflix, and Target.) Organizations that have fully implemented DevOps are able to dramatically reduce the time it takes to deliver products to market while simultaneously lessening development costs.That’s not the only reason the DevOps market is projected to surge 19% by 2020 and reach an estimated $12.85 billion by 2025.Consider this: Employee job satisfaction is a major predictor of organizational success. As a business approach, DevOps can curtail problems with employee satisfaction. Software developers don’t like broken/slow environments and hate spending their time figuring out why they can’t deploy code with one push of a button.DevOps leads to happier, more productive employees while reducing organizational risks, improving customer satisfaction, and allowing for faster recovery times.Dispelling DevOps MythsBefore we explore why a DevOps implementation is such a competitive advantage, let’s be clear about what DevOps isn’t.DevOps is not automation. However, automating as much as possible is one of the primary principles of DevOps. Likewise, it’s not a replacement for the deeply technical and specialized skills in your organization. Eliminating the stovepipes of specialization does not mean firing your Linux and Oracle experts.DevOps does require deep cultural and organizational change. That typically means altering behavior — a lot. It means overhauling decades’ worth of practices that are deeply ingrained in your team.You have to tell the veterans of your organization who are accustomed to running things in a certain way that much of what they know and do every day is obsolete.It’s not easy to change your IT organizational structure. We can put developers and operations people together in a room and tell them to get it done, but those two groups of people won’t magically morph into a DevOps organization. They might as well be from different planets.Keep Calm and Rely on CALMSCALMS is a conceptual framework for the integration of development and operations, quality and security teams, and systems and functions within an organization. It’s often used as a maturity model, helping managers evaluate whether their organizations are ready for DevOps — and if not, what needs to change.If you work in operations, “doing DevOps” and making use of some development techniques doesn’t automatically translate to success.It’s critical to note that simply implementing software practices inside an ops silo isn’t sufficient. Cultural and procedural changes around CALMS implementation in your organization are required.The five pillars of the framework are:· Culture: There is a culture of shared responsibility.· Automation: Team members seek ways to automate as many tasks as possible and are comfortable with the idea of continuous delivery.· Lean: Team members can visualize work in progress, limit batch sizes, and manage queue lengths.· Measurement: Data is constantly being collected, and there is also technology that can provide visibility into all this data and the systems that house it.· Sharing: Easy-to-navigate channels allow teams in both development and operations to communicate. It’s incredibly important to eliminate any silos that exist between development teams responsible for disparate functions.Eliminating divisions helps organizations achieve the end-to-end accountability necessary to create effective software solutions. Within DevOps, an effective method of building internal trust involves bringing together team members to develop software and proactively respond to new issues in production with assistance from operations.Harnessing the Power of DevOpsIf you’re a decision maker at your organization who wants to harness the power of DevOps, here are five tips for a successful implementation:1. Choose the right development methodology.The underlying philosophy of DevOps is shorter, more focused work cycles that lead to superior outcomes. More agile development approaches like Scrum or Kanban can empower developers to define goals, prioritize tasks, and identify procedural problems. You can use a combination of both methodologies to optimize your approach based on your particular business objectives.2. Implement CI and CD strategies.Continuous integration, or CI, is a strategy for frequently and automatically testing against a code branch. Continuous delivery, or CD, automates the process of getting code into production after testing and approval (if needed).The code is held in a repository like Git or SVN for safekeeping and version control. But those repositories aren’t limited to code. Automated methods of configuring and deploying infrastructure have breathed life into the concept of “infrastructure as code.”Using infrastructure as code means that you can incorporate it into other DevOps processes, such as deployment or testing. One of the benefits of infrastructure as code is how it allows your systems to remain evergreen by making it easy to keep everything updated with new packages or versions.3. Consider using the cloud.For some organizations, DevOps relies on a cloud infrastructure that allows practitioners to provision and request resources. A prerequisite of DevOps is the ability to consume resources as you go and to detach the infrastructure for the central service.That cloud doesn’t need to be Amazon Web Services, though. It can be built as an internal private cloud. Enterprises working to embrace DevOps often struggle with legacy infrastructure, which sometimes does not interface well with cutting-edge tools. In most cases, however, such a transition is a requirement for successful DevOps adoption.4. Adjust and iterate.How well IT performs depends on certain DevOps practices, such as continuous delivery as well as using version control. The more time DevOps practices are given (and the more they are improved upon), the better they perform. And improved IT performance means there’s also a greater likelihood of improving performance across the entire organization. In fact, 46% of organizations with high-performing IT departments see improved ROI on technology.Moreover, these organizations are more likely to be at the forefront of digital transformation and invest in advanced technologies like artificial intelligence, predictive analytics, and customer experience tools.5. Focus on cultural change.Organizational culture is one of the strongest predictors of both IT performance and the overall success of an organization. High-trust organizations encourage an open flow of information, collaboration across departments, the ability to learn from mistakes and failures, and sharing responsibilities.These cultural practices and norms are core elements of DevOps, with DevOps practices frequently correlating with peak organizational performance. Job satisfaction involves doing work that’s challenging and meaningful, empowering us to exercise our skills and judgment. It’s also clear that job satisfaction encourages employees to bring their best selves to work, which leads to more innovation everywhere.To be clear, DevOps is a methodology that focuses on people rather than technology. Numerous studies have shown that healthy organizations — companies that have satisfied team members — are more productive than their competitors. A successful DevOps implementation will undoubtedly give you a competitive advantage. Moreover, it will create the type of internal mindset that will be necessary for success as technological change continues to disrupt commerce in the coming years. Andrey KudievskiyCEO of Distillery Reasons to Outsource General Counsel Services f…
New Delhi: Capital markets regulator Sebi slapped Rs 94.5 lakh penalty on 17 entities for indulging in fraudulent trade practices in illiquid stock options segment on the BSE. The regulator, during the course of investigation between April 2015 and September 2015, found that 81.38 per cent of all the trades executed in the stock options segment involved reversal of buy and sell positions by the clients and counter-parties in a contract on the same day. Also Read – Thermal coal import may surpass 200 MT this fiscal These entities were among those “whose reversal trades involved squaring off transactions with significant difference in sell value and buy value of the transactions,” Sebi said in similarly worded separate orders on Friday. It further said trades of the entities are non-genuine as they are not executed in normal course of trading, lack basic trading rationale, lead to misleading appearance of trading in terms of generation of artificial volumes, and are hence deceptive & manipulative. Also Read – Food grain output seen at 140.57 mt in current fiscal on monsoon boost By indulging in such trades, the entities have violated provisions of the Prohibition of Fraudulent and Unfair Trade Practices (PFUTP) norms, Sebi said. Accordingly, a fine of Rs 9 lakh on Makers Casting, and Rs 8 lakh on Ashok Investors Trust has been levied by Sebi. Others have been fined in the range of Rs 5 lakh to Rs 6 lakh. The orders are in accordance with the Securities and Exchange Board of India’s announcement in April 2018 on taking action in a phased manner against 14,720 entities for fraudulent trade in the illiquid stock options segment. In a separate order, the regulator imposed a penalty of Rs 18 lakh on promoters of Man Industries for not making requisite disclosure to the company and exchanges after change in their shareholding in the firm. “Substantial Acquisition of Shares and Takeovers (SAST) Regulations requires every promoter of a target company to disclose details of any invocation or release of encumbrance of shares. Such disclosure of creation, release and invocation of disclosures required under…has to be made within 7 working days from creation, invocation and release of such encumbrance,” Sebi said. However, the entities failed to do so and consequently a fine of Rs 6 lakh on JPA Holdings and Rs 12 lakh on Jagdishchandra Mansukhani has been imposed by the regulator.
New Delhi: All good things must come to an end, and that stands true for hugely popular shows like ‘Game of Thrones’, ‘Big Bang Theory’, ‘Modern Family’, ‘Supernatural’ and ‘Suits’. Here are some shows that are coming to an end soon: GoT: With a storyline that paints a whimsical world of dragons and White Walkers on one hand, and stays close to reality by showing how relationships cannot be trusted when it comes to ruling a kingdom, the show, with its story based on George R.R. Martin’s novels, has become a global phenomenon.’Game of Thrones’ Season 8 will premiere internationally on April 14. Suits: The story started when a hotshot lawyer Harvey Specter (essayed Gabriel Macht) took a gamble by hiring a brilliant college dropout Mike Ross (Patrick J. Adams) as an associate in his law firm, and gave the audience a glimpse of the trials and tribulations of the legal world. The drama began in 2011. Supernatural: Credited as the longest-running sci-fi genre show, ‘Supernaturals’ is all about the supernatural and paranormal. It follows brothers Sam (Jared Padalecki) and Dean (Jensen Ackles) Winchester as they join their family business of hunting down supernatural monsters. Big Bang Theory: This show’s universe originated with the story of how four nerds – react when a girl enters their life as a friendly neighbour. Other shows include ‘Modern Family’, ‘Arrow’, etc.
New Delhi: The Patliputra Lok Sabha constituency, which was created after the delimitation of 2008, is set to witness a very tight fight as Lalu Prasad’s elder daughter Misa Bharti, who was fielded as RJD candidate after rejecting the candidature of RJD’s old warhorse in 2014 election, is again in the poll arena to take on Ramkripal Yadav.The prestige of both Lalu Prasad and his son Tejashwi Yadav is at stake as Misa Bharti has been fielded against the ‘wishes’ of Tejashwi Yadav. The RJD had ‘wanted’ to field Maner MLA Bhai Virendra from the high profile Patliputra seat in 2019 polls. Though the contest is Yadav vs Yadav and the best Yadav would win the game. Also Read – 2019 most peaceful festive season for J&K: Jitendra SinghInterestingly, even though the Patliputra Lok Sabha seat is a completely Yadav-dominated, Lalu Prasad who had contested in 2009 general elections had faced an unprecedented defeat. Notably, Lalu Prasad had contested from Patliputra seat in 2009 when the BJP’s key ally JD(U) had ‘restricted’ incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi from holding the election rallies in Bihar. In the neck to neck fight, the RJD supremo had faced unprecedented defeat by JD(U) candidate Ranjan Yadav, who had switched his side from RJD. Lalu Prasad had lost the seat by 24,000 votes, while CPI(ML) candidate Rameshwar Prasad, who had secured 36,000 votes, was at the third position. Later on, Ranjan Yadav became a member of BJP in 2015. Also Read – Personal life needs to be respected: Cong on reports of Rahul’s visit abroad The election of 2014 had become more interesting after Lalu Prasad, who was banned from contesting elections preferred his family member over his old confident and fielded elder daughter Misa Bharti to wrest the prestigious seat. As like Lalu Prasad, Bharti too failed to wrest the seat and lost it to BJP’s Ramkripal Yadav, who had started his political career under the tutelage of Lalu Prasad. Bharti, who faced the defeat by a margin of 40,332 votes, had scored 3,42,940 votes, while BJP nominee Ramkripal Yadav had scored 3,83,262 votes out of the total 9,78,649 votes polled in 2014. According to political experts, the contest is going to be very close as Yadav voters are now stand divided. “Given that both the leaders represent the same community, the best candidate would make it to the final. The circumstances for Misa Bharti have become little favourable in comparison to 2014,” the expert said, adding that during the 2014 polls the sympathy of Yadavs was with Ramkripal as he was being ‘ditched’ by Lalu Prasad. “The situation is all different in 2019 polls as voters of the area are now counting the development works being done by sitting MPs for the community. Voters are judging both the leaders on the parameters of their performance,” the expert said, adding that the contest is all about who has done what in the last 5 years for the area and the community. It’s worth mentioning that Misa Bharti was elected unopposed to Rajya Sabha in June 2016. The Patliputra Lok Sabha constituency has six assembly seats — Danapur, Maner, Phulwari (SC), Masaurhi (SC), Paliganj and Bikram. There are about 5 lakh Yadavs, 3 lakh Bhumihars and 4 lakh Kurmi voters in the parliamentary constituency which has about 16.5 lakh voters. Prior to delimitation, Patna was the Bihar’s capital seat which was divided into two Lok Sabha seats – Patliputra and Patna Sahib. Patliputra comprises of rural areas while Patna Sahib comprises of mostly urban areas.
Rabat – Morocco international player Adel Taarabt has signed for AC Milan.The 24-year old player will be transferred to the Italian club on a loan for the rest of the season.A statement released by AC Milan says that “Adel Taarabt has landed on a private jet to (Milan’s) Linate airport.” The Moroccan international has undergone a medical examination before joining the prestigious Italian club.“I am honoured to be able to play in the best club in the world,” Taarabt told the official website of AC Milan.“I have spoken to (AC Milan coach Clarence) Seedorf and we are both really happy.”“I am a striker and I like to play behind the forwards or even on the left or the right.”“I don’t know personally Balotelli but it’s a great honor for me to be able to play with him,” he added.